Holy Roman Empire

After deciding to cut their losses, the French government immediately prepared a list of assets and sent it to European countries to find potential buyers.

The focus was naturally on Britain and Austria, as other countries simply did not have the capability to take over the Mexican Empire. While Prussia and Russia had the military strength, they lacked the financial resources to be good buyers.

In Vienna, as soon as the news of France’s intention to sell its assets in Mexico arrived, the Austrian government conducted an in-depth analysis.

The result was obvious. They were undoubtedly poor-quality assets. Despite the fact that the French had secured a series of privileges, almost monopolizing Mexico’s mineral resources, the issue was that these assets were difficult to liquidate.

To convert these immovable assets into real assets, they would first need to help stabilize the situation in Mexico. As long as the civil war continued, these minerals were worthless.

With the local population lacking purchasing power, commercial privileges were also useless. They couldn’t exactly spend money and effort to help the Mexican people get rich and live prosperous lives.

This wasn’t the 21st century. Resources weren’t valuable at this time. In this era, the most valuable asset of the Mexican Empire was its silver mines. However, the extracted silver would primarily be used to repay French debts.

Yes, the French were selling it at a loss, but the required investment was too large, and the potential returns were unclear.

Simply put, only the money in hand counts as real money. No matter how rosy the future returns were painted, if they weren’t realized, it was all just idle talk.

Everyone understood that the French bottom line was dropping lower and lower. From initially wanting to recover the loan and make a little extra, they now just wanted to get back their principal.

If that wasn’t possible, they could still negotiate. Napoleon III would probably accept recovering even seventy or eighty percent of the investment.

This wasn’t because Napoleon III had low standards but because he had lost confidence in Maximilian I. Continuously pouring money into a bottomless pit was something even wealthy France could not endure.

Once Maximilian’s regime collapses, all of their investments will be for nothing. The Mexican Republicans were overthrown because they defaulted on debts, so expecting them to honor commitments is highly unlikely.

Unfortunately, perhaps due to the French reputation in Europe being too intimidating, nobody dared to touch what they couldn’t even manage.

In spite of the French government repeatedly easing conditions, the party assuming control of these loans wouldn’t need to make immediate payments. Their only obligation would be to guarantee the Mexican government fulfilled its obligations. The French even offered a financial incentive in the form of a commission.

Simply put, the French would recover most of the loan principal, while the remaining interest and benefits from various privileges would go to whoever took over.

Yet still, no one was willing to take the bait. If the Mexican government failed to fulfill its debt obligations, it would be the new buyer’s responsibility to pay.

It turned out that every country had its limits and was unwilling to sacrifice its own credibility. No one was willing to give France such a guarantee.

In reality, many were interested in Mexico, but most only wanted to make a quick profit and were unwilling to make a large-scale investment.

Take the Spaniards, for example, who had always wanted to turn Mexico back into a colony. After the outbreak of the American Civil War, they took action, only to be pushed out by the French.

Now, due to the fight for the throne, Spain is embroiled in a civil war. France played a part in this. If Napoleon III hadn’t used military threats to veto the military’s nominated candidate forcefully, things wouldn’t have escalated to this point.

With civil war raging, expansion into Mexico was naturally impossible. Now, Spain’s overseas colonies were on edge, fearing they might be swallowed up by others.

Similarly, the British were also expanding into Mexico, but their investment was insufficient, and they couldn’t compete with the French.

If they weren’t willing to invest then, there was even less reason to do so now. The British had too many colonies, struggling to manage what they already had, so the Mexican Empire was unlikely to pique their interest.

Then there was the Kingdom of Prussia, which had also expressed interest in Mexico. Unfortunately, they lacked funds and couldn’t even come up with the initial investment needed to suppress the Mexican rebellion.

Such paupers are not ideal customers. Even if Mexico were given to Prussia for free, they wouldn’t have the money to send troops to intervene in the Mexican Civil War.

To cut their losses, the French government had secretly reached out to the Republicans. If Juárez would agree to continue honoring the treaties signed with Maximilian, they were open to negotiating his return to power.

...

Late at night, the Mexican rebel command was brightly lit as Juárez convened a military meeting to discuss the next battle plans.

“Defeated but unbeaten” was a phrase that aptly described the Mexican rebels. From the moment Juárez launched the uprising until now, the rebel army had experienced hundreds of large and small battles, most of which ended in defeat.

Thanks to Maximilian I’s reform policies, however, the rebel army did not disappear but instead gradually grew stronger through their defeats.

War was their best teacher. Initially, they fought the French head-on, but now they had matured into waging guerrilla warfare. The rebels had indeed grown significantly.

Though still unable to defeat the French, they were at least holding their own against the Mexican government forces. Without French support, Maximilian I would have been overthrown long ago.

Foreign Minister Padro said, “Mr. President, the Americans have informed us that the French government has changed its stance and is preparing to sell the privileges they obtained from that tyrant.”

The Mexican rebels also had a government, refusing to acknowledge the legitimacy of Maximilian I’s government, instead establishing a republican government as a continuation of the previous one.

With financial backing, the rebels’ situation improved, and their makeshift government gradually became more organized and functional.

The leaders were mostly former political prisoners pardoned by Maximilian I, which was somewhat awkward.

The provisional government was rife with internal conflicts, and to prove they were not collaborating with Maximilian I, they labeled him a tyrant.

Frankly, that label was unfair. Maximilian I was at most an inept ruler, but certainly not a tyrant.

This was the main point. Everyone was a Republican, and no one would defend him. Since he was the enemy, it was natural to paint him in the darkest light possible.

Juárez said joyfully, “It seems the French can’t hold on any longer. The day of our revolutionary victory is near.”

Hearing this good news, everyone smiled with relief. After all, they were up against France, and that was no small challenge.

France was at the height of its power at this time, and its influence in Mexico was significant. Many people would not have joined the revolution if it hadn’t been for the severe damage to their interests.

Even those who joined the rebel forces were skeptical about the possibility of victory. They had launched numerous decisive battles to drive out the French, and each had ended in defeat.

The shadow of defeat constantly loomed in everyone’s hearts. Everyone knew that the force France had invested in Mexico was less than a tenth, perhaps not even a twentieth, of its full strength.

With such a small force, the French still had them under immense pressure, so they were naturally wary of them. Hearing that the French were planning to withdraw brought great joy to everyone.

A middle-aged officer asked with concern, “Is anyone taking over?”

If the French withdrew, only for someone else to step in, they would have a new enemy. If they had just managed to drive away the wolf at the front door, only to find a tiger entering through the back door, it would be tragic.

The idea of “driving out the wolf and chasing away the tiger” sounded good in theory, but in practice, it would be a nightmare. The rebel forces had limited strength and couldn’t handle such a monumental task.

Everyone was most worried about Austria, as the emperor was from the House of Habsburg. If the intervention shifted from France to Austria, the cooperation between them would undoubtedly be even closer.

With the Austrian Central American colony right next door, the Austrian government would find it all too easy to meddle in Mexico’s internal affairs.

Foreign Minister Padro, brimming with confidence, replied, “If even the French have failed, how could anyone else take over?”

The tense expressions on everyone’s faces eased immediately. Without foreign interference, they were fully confident in overthrowing Maximilian I’s rule.

After a brief pause, Padro continued, “Mr. President, why don’t we first agree to the French terms, and once we’ve expelled Maximilian I, we can renege on our agreement?”

The contact with the French was conducted in secret, but since they were all high-level officials here, they naturally knew about the rebel forces’ covert communication with the French.

This wasn’t surprising, given that the French influence was so vast, and there was no guarantee of victory. While preparing for armed rebellion, they were also ready to compromise with the French.

The negotiations had stalled because the conditions were too far apart. But that line of communication remained open, serving as a backup plan.

“Deceiving the French,” Padro’s suggestion brought a drastic change in the crowd’s expressions.

After finally waiting for the French to lose their patience and prepare to withdraw, provoking them at this point might infuriate them. Who knew how the French would react?

Juárez shook his head and said, “No, France is a great power. Even if they fail here, it won’t affect their strength. If we were to infuriate them, we’d never have peace in the future.”

This wasn’t Juárez being overly cautious. He simply lacked the strength to speak and act with confidence. Even if the French abandoned Mexico, they could still cause them plenty of trouble.

Padro, unwilling to give up, argued, “Mr. President, our secret contact with the French is strictly confidential. Even if they do make a deal with us, the French government wouldn’t dare sign a formal agreement. If word got out that they betrayed Maximilian I, Napoleon III wouldn’t be able to withstand the political backlash.

With only a verbal agreement, even if we break it, the French can’t openly make an issue of it. As for the matter of retaliation, given our current situation, can our relationship with the French really improve? Unless we continue to uphold the treaties signed by Maximilian I, there’s no possibility of reconciliation.”

Juárez was caught in a dilemma. If they wanted to achieve revolutionary victory quickly, deceiving the French was the best option.

Whether there was a treaty or not, they could always refuse to pay. However, enduring French retaliation would be no easy feat, and Juárez knew better than to underestimate the strength of the French.

The debt default years ago was a profound lesson. Aside from the government’s financial collapse and inability to pay, the Mexican government also assumed European countries wouldn’t go to great lengths over such a small amount of money, yet Britain, France, and Spain all intervened, with the French refusing to leave.

After years of civil war, the economic damage to Mexico far exceeded the original debt many times over.

Even if no one blamed him for it, Juárez was well aware of his responsibility in the matter. Having learned from the past, he was naturally more cautious now.

Juárez asked, “What do others think?”

Finance Minister Anderson was the first to reply, “I think it’s worth a try. Recently, the French annexed Italy and are busy digesting their gains.

In the short term, they are likely to pursue a strategic withdrawal. This is a matter of national policy, and the French government isn’t going to change that for our sake.

This period might last for a decade or so. That’s our opportunity—if we can complete our internal reforms and strengthen the country during this time, we won’t have to fear French retaliation.”

Army Minister Grove echoed, “We’ve come this far, so why worry about the French? They’re our enemies anyway, so it doesn’t matter if we offend them a bit more.

Once we overthrow the decadent tyrant regime, we can establish a strong Mexican Republic, and we won’t have to worry about French retaliation.”

...

Everyone was optimistic, believing that once Maximilian I’s rule was overthrown, Mexico could immediately become strong.

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